There are many things about this season’s Detroit Red Wings team that are not the same as they were last season. Their penalty kill is an active detriment to the team (though it has looked better in their most recent contests.) Their five-on-five offense has become painfully anemic. Several players are falling short of expectations.
Perhaps the most notable player falling short is Patrick Kane, the storied veteran whose arrival legitimized the Red Wings’ playoff ambitions last season.
As an important member of the Red Wings’ top six, Kane’s personal struggles are reflective of the Red Wings’ offense as a whole. If the 18-year veteran can rediscover his form from last season, it could be the catalyst for a second-half playoff push in Detroit.
Kane’s Impact at Career-Low Rate
One of more remarkable storylines from last season was Kane’s return from an offseason hip surgery that forced him to miss the first month of the season. After signing with the Red Wings as a free agent, he became a staple of the team’s second line, oftentimes with Alex DeBrincat, his former teammate with the Chicago Blackhawks.
Kane produced at a high level, finishing the season with 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games, and he provided his fair share of memorable moments throughout the season. It might have been weird to see the longtime Blackhawk in a Red Wings uniform at first, but he looked right at home as Detroit pushed for a playoff spot late in the season.
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The biggest thing was that Patrick Kane looked like Patrick Kane; he had the ability to take over a game, and his creativity unlocked the full potential of the Red Wings’ offense. His 3.0 relative Corsi-for percentage (rel-CF%) at even strength was the third-highest of his career; this means that the Red Wings’ share of offensive chances increased by three percent when he was on the ice at even strength (per Hockey Reference).
Kane’s days of exceeding 100, even 90 points are behind him, but his performance last season gave enough reason to think he had a couple more 60-to-70 point seasons left in the tank. That’s why it has been so jarring to see Kane struggle to make an impact to this point in the season.
With just 10 points in 23 games, Kane is producing at the lowest rate of his career. His points per-60 minutes is at just 1.5, and his rel-CF% is in the negative, meaning the puck tends to go towards the Red Wings’ net when he is on the ice. This is especially problematic as he has never been known as a strong defender, and that is especially true in his age-36 season.
Father Time Is Undefeated
When Kane joined the Red Wings last season, the main topic of discussion was his offseason hip surgery and whether his body would respond well to it. When he looked like vintage Patrick Kane throughout the season, it became easy to forget that he is still in his mid-30s, and the beatdown from Father Time was inevitable, if not delayed. That fact has been clear as day this season.
Whether it’s his lack of foot speed or his inability to stickhandle around defenders, Kane’s mind seems to be writing checks that his body can’t cash anymore.
Kane still tries to make plays, especially from the perimeter on the power play, but his attempts are resulting in goals at a far lesser rate than they were last season. Perhaps most damning is the fact that he almost has as many turnovers this season (27) as he did through 50 games last season (30). His hockey IQ is undeniable, but it doesn’t mean anything if he keeps giving the puck to the opposition. Even during the Red Wings’ first shootout of the season on Dec. 9 against the Buffalo Sabres, he failed to clinch the game despite doing so many times last season.
While it might be a little premature to say that Kane can’t be an effective offensive player still, it might be time to reassess our collective expectations for him. Unless he finds another gear in the near future, 40-to-50 points is probably the most optimistic outlook for him this season, and that’s while playing in a middle-six, heavily sheltered offensive role.
That’s a big step down for a player heralded as one of the greatest talents to come out of the United States. No matter who you are and what you’ve accomplished, Father Time comes for us all.
Kane’s Legacy Push
After acknowledging where Kane is at in terms of his age, you then must acknowledge where he is at in terms of his career.
Kane has won almost everything there is for a forward to win in the NHL. He isn’t chasing that elusive championship; he has three rings already. He isn’t trying to set a career-defining record like Alex Ovechkin is. He has earned millions of dollars over the course of his career, and his family is set up for generations because of it. The countdown to his Hall of Fame induction begins the second he retires.
Kane now must decide what he wants the twilight of his career to look like. He has a good thing going in Detroit; he is uniquely admired and respected among fans and his teammates, his good friend DeBrincat is an important player for the Red Wings and will always be a viable linemate for him, and Kane can continue to be a key figure in rebuilding the culture in the Red Wings’ locker room.
But if Kane decides he wants one more championship, it almost certainly won’t come in Detroit. If the Red Wings make him available at the trade deadline this season, there will be suitors. He’s not the premiere talent he once was, but he can still be a contributor on a championship team.
If the Red Wings are going to take another step forward this season, they need more contributions from their veterans. Kane is no exception – in fact, he might be the veteran whose “peak” contributions they are missing the most right now.
When “Showtime” arrived last season, it was like a breath of fresh air for a team that needed a boost. If “Showtime” can return this season, it could be exactly what the Red Wings need to turn around what has been a disappointing season to this point.
