One of the most noticeable trends involving the Detroit Red Wings this season has been the wide discrepancy in shots. Opponents have been trouncing the Red Wings in the shot department night after night. Yet, Detroit’s record is 4-4-1.
Is shot differential a concern? It’s in line with the bend-but-don’t-break defensive strategy that the Red Wings employed last season. The only difference is that the shot volume disparity seems especially pronounced this year.
A few notable #RedWings stats:
— They’ve gone 171:12 without allowing five-on-five goal, since first period at Nashville.
— Outshot 97-44 over past eight periods and haven’t allowed even-strength goal during that time.
— Allowed 9 PPGs on 24 chances for season (62.5% PK rate).— Ansar Khan (@AnsarKhanMLive) October 25, 2024
Let’s dive into the data to see if there are any underlying issues worth addressing.
Red Wings’ Five-on-Five Defense Coming Through
In my opinion, high-danger chances are a better indicator of competence than shot volume or shot attempts. High-danger chances are opportunities from the inner slot that are tougher for goalies to save, and thus, have a better chance of going in.
Through nine games, the Red Wings have given up 10.3 high-danger chances against per 60 (HDCA/60) at five on five. This ranks 11th in the NHL. Their HDCA/60 also compares well against last year’s numbers: 11.1 HDCA/60.
The average danger of shot attempts against tells a similar tale. Detroit’s 0.056 expected goals against per unblocked shot attempt is third-best in the NHL.
In addition, Detroit’s goalies are keeping the puck out of the net at even strength. Alex Lyon, Cam Talbot, and Ville Husso have combined to produce a 2.09 GAA during five-on-five play. That’s seventh-best in the league.
Should we be concerned with the high amount of shots given up by the Red Wings? Perhaps not. #LGRW pic.twitter.com/DF9jE6pWPY
— The Flying Octopus Podcast (@FlyingOctoPod) October 26, 2024
Overall, the Red Wings are doing a good job of limiting quality chances against, and their goalies are coming through when called upon – at least at five on five. Detroit’s even strength defensive play is not an issue at this point.
Other Causes of Detroit’s Shot Volume Disparity
If not Detroit’s five-on-five defense, then what? Two areas of concern come to mind – the penalty kill and the Red Wings’ offensive production (or lack thereof).
Starting with the penalty kill, Detroit ranks second to last in the league – killing off 66.7 percent of opponents’ power plays. They’re also giving up 30.76 HDCA/60 while shorthanded. In this regard, the Red Wings rank 27th in the NHL.
“We’ve got to take a look at our penalty kill here,” Lalonde told reporters following Detroit’s 5-2 win against the New Jersey Devils (from ‘What I think, and what I know, about the Red Wings after 7 games’ – The Athletic – 10/25/24). “Not trending very well, obviously.”
The Red Wings’ passive approach to the penalty kill just isn’t working out. There are too many cross-ice passing lanes open for opponents to exploit and they have far too much time to make their decisions. The result is a lot of shot attempts against, high-danger chances, and, ultimately, goals against as well.
The flip side is also at fault here – Detroit’s offense hasn’t generated much of anything at five on five. The power play is coming along, but more offensive firepower is needed.
Related: Red Wings’ Scoring Projections for 2024-25
Nine games into the season, the Red Wings rank second to last in terms of even strength HDCF/60 (7.94). In addition, their five-on-five shot attempts per 60 ranks dead last (47.89).
Plain and simple, the Red Wings need more from their offense – both in terms of quality and quantity.
Final Word
At this point, I have no qualms about Detroit’s even strength defense. Their bend-but-don’t-break approach is working fine for now.
That said, the penalty kill and offensive output need to be addressed. These are the primary causes of the lopsided shot volume trend and, frankly, their middling record. Derek Lalonde and his coaching staff need to adjust their strategy to foster a more sustainable game plan.
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.
