Detroit Red Wings have 5% odds to win NHL draft lottery 2023. Here’s how it works

The Detroit Red Wings soon will know where they make the next most important pick in their rebuild.

They enter tonight’s NHL draft lottery 2023 (8 p.m., ESPN) from NHL Network headquarters in Secaucus, New Jersey, in the ninth spot, with 5% odds of picking first.

Here’s what you need to know about, and follow live updates below.

NHL draft prospects 2023

The draft is set for June 28-29 (Wednesday/Thursday) at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, with Round 1 on the first night and Rounds 2-7 the following day.

It’s considered a marquee draft class thanks to Connor Bedard of the WHL’s Regina Pats, who has been the consensus to go first overall for a couple of years. He possesses an ability to maneuver the puck that leaves opponents helpless, and will have an immediate impact on the trajectory of the team that gets him.

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Adam Fantilli (Michigan Wolverines) is projected to go second after becoming just the third freshman to win the Hobey Baker Award this past season. He was the top scorer in the NCAA, showcasing a fast game and a willingness to mix it up physically. Like Bedard, Fantilli is a center.

How does the NHL draft lottery work?

There are 14 balls, numbered 1 to 14, placed in a lottery machine. For each drawing, the machine will spit out four balls, and the resulting four-number combination (without regard to selection order) will be matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the team to which each combination was assigned pre-lottery. This is similar, but slightly different than how the NBA conducts its lottery, which takes place May 16.

There are two lottery drawings, one for the first pick and one for the second pick.

Read more details directly from the NHL, which includes this year’s combination chart.

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NHL draft lottery odds and order

Here are the odds for the first lottery draw.

Anaheim Ducks, 18.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets, 13.5%
Chicago Blackhawks, 11.5%
San Jose Sharks, 9.5%
Montreal Canadiens, 8.5%
Arizona Coyotes, 7.5%
Philadelphia Flyers, 6.5%
Washington Capitals, 6%
Detroit Red Wings, 5%
St. Louis Blues, 3.5%
Vancouver Canucks, 3%
Ottawa Senators, 2.5% (goes to Coyotes if it is not a top-five pick; can’t move higher than No. 2 pick)
Buffalo Sabres, 2% (can’t move higher than No. 3 pick)
Pittsburgh Penguins, 1.5% (can’t move higher than No. 4 pick)
Nashville Predators, 0.5% (can’t move higher than No. 5 pick)
Calgary Flames, 0.5% (can’t move higher than No. 6 pick)

The NHL changed the lottery after the fiasco in 2020, when the Wings had the worst record but were pushed back to fourth. Now, teams cannot jump more than 10 spots, and only the worst 11 teams are eligible for the first pick. If a team that entered the lottery in spots 12 to 16 wins the first drawing, the first pick goes to the worst team (the Ducks), and the team that “won” the drawing locks into its new position. (For example, if the 16th place Flames “won” the first drawing, they would move up 10 spots to No. 6).

A second drawing is held for the second overall pick, using a re-seeded order following the first drawing. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the second draw, based on which team wins the No. 1 pick. The winner is still restricted to moving up 10 spots.

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Red Wings pick odds

The Red Wings can end up choosing first, second, third, ninth, 10th or 11th. Their odds at each pick, according to the reputable Tankathon.com:

Pick 1: 5%
Pick 2: 5.2%
Pick 3: 0.2%
Pick 9: 64.4%
Pick 10: 23.5%
Pick 11: 1.7%

The Red Wings also have the New York Islanders’ first-rounder, No. 18 overall, acquired from the Vancouver Canucks in the Filip Hronek trade.

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Red Wings recent lottery history

They are hoping for better luck this May; in their six previous lottery turns, the Red Wings have slid down four times (though they’ve stayed put in the past two). The Wings in 2022 took center Marco Kasper at No. 8 overall.

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