Now that the 4 Nations Face-Off has wrapped up, the focus can turn back to the Detroit Red Wings and their playoff chase.
After a two-week break in action, the Red Wings return to the ice on Saturday against the Minnesota Wild. This will kick off a five-game sprint in only eight days, culminating in the 2025 Stadium Series against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
With 61 points, Detroit currently owns the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Maintaining a playoff spot will be a challenge, though. There are some obstacles ahead, for sure. But it can be done. Today, we’ll dive into what the Red Wings need to clinch a playoff berth.
Red Wings’ Place In the Standings
According to MoneyPuck, the Red Wings have a 46.4 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Essentially, it’s a 50-50 battle between them and the New York Rangers.
By my estimate, Detroit needs 31 points to lock down a playoff spot. That’s a .574 pace over the final 27 games.
That’s definitely doable. They’ve played at a .738 pace since Todd McLellan took over.
One part of the equation that shouldn’t be ignored, though, is the strength of Detroit’s remaining schedule. Per Tankathon, they actually have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NHL. The Red Wings still have to play the Washington Capitals twice, the Carolina Hurricanes three times, and the Florida Panthers twice more. So while a .574 points percentage down the stretch is attainable, their schedule won’t exactly be a cakewalk.
That’s Objective No. 1 – reach 92 points. That’s the success/failure line in terms of playoff hopes.
Red Wings’ Focus Areas
Part of a strong finish is addressing organizational weaknesses. And for the Red Wings, there are three that stand out:
- Five-on-five offense
- Penalty kill
- Defensive depth
You can make the case that others should be included here, but, in my opinion, these are the three main deficiencies at the moment.
Despite a general resurgence under McLellan, Detroit’s five-on-five offense is still a work in progress. At even-strength, their 2.14 goals-for per 60 (GF/60), 24.46 scoring chances-for per 60 (SCF/60), and 10.18 high-danger chances-for per 60 (HDCF/60) since the coaching change all sit in the bottom-half of the league.
“Who are we? That’s going to get answered in the next 27 games.”
🗣️: Andrew Copp & Todd McLellan
🎥: https://t.co/oPS1ahDod5 pic.twitter.com/tyKSo96bIR— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) February 19, 2025
Likewise, their penalty kill has been better, but not by much. Detroit’s 71.8 kill percentage under McLellan ranks 26th in the NHL. That said, if you only focus on the last 10 games, their 80 percent kill rate is respectable. Still, you can’t assume that the issue is resolved completely.
And finally, the Red Wings don’t have much depth beyond their top two defensive pairs. Erik Gustafsson and Justin Holl have been fine on the third pairing. But beyond them, there’s only William Lagesson, at least until Jeff Petry returns in April. An injury to the top four could be devastating.
Related: Which Red Wings Are Expendable?
It’s absolutely critical that the Red Wings address these three problem areas down the stretch. Doing so will make the race to 92 points that much easier.
Detroit’s Playoff Chase
Can all of this be done? In short, yes.
In all likelihood, improvements to the offense and penalty kill will need to come from within. Detroit just isn’t in a place where they can splurge on a trade deadline acquisition to solve their problems. That said, they have the right motivator behind the bench in McLellan. The Red Wings have made incremental progress in these facets of the game, too. There’s just more work to be done in order to earn a playoff spot.
As for Detroit’s defensive depth, it’s paramount that Steve Yzerman makes a move before the deadline. Again, this shouldn’t be a splashy move – adding a veteran with playoff experience to compete with Gustafsson, Holl, and Petry would be sufficient. I’ve mentioned Alec Martinez before, and will pump the idea again. He’s a two-time Stanley Cup winner and has played under McLellan and Trent Yawney. Detroit can absorb his $4 million cap hit for the remainder of this season, too. Whether it’s Martinez or someone else, something needs to be done.
Combined with the team’s general health, these improvements should be enough to push the Red Wings over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Data courtesy of NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck, and Tankathon.
