Axel Sandin Pellikka (ASP) is without a doubt the highest profile prospect in the Red Wings’ prospect system, with guys like Marco Kasper and Simon Edvinsson graduating from the pipeline and making significant impacts in the NHL this season. Since being drafted 17th overall back in the 2023 Draft, ASP has consistently improved in all facets of the game, and looks like a future difference maker for Detroit whenever he does eventually join the team.
Sandin Pellikka was signed by the Red Wings in May of 2024, and is on loan in Sweden’s SHL for the 2024-25 season. It’s certainly possible that he makes his North American debut in the NHL or AHL this coming Spring, so I think it’s time to start thinking of some fair and realistic expectations for ASP when he does make that move. When will he arrive in Detroit, and what can fans expect him to do for a young team that is seemingly on the brink of a breakthrough?
Benefits of Developing in Grand Rapids
The Red Wings have been incredibly cautious when it comes to rushing their top prospects into the NHL over the past few years (something about a former sixth overall pick completely busting?), and while that has been a point of frustration for many fans, the Red Wings’ success rate with top prospects going through Grand Rapids has been excellent lately, with Moritz Seider, Marco Kasper, and Simon Edvinsson all playing massive roles in Detroit following extended stints in the AHL.
Related: NHL’s Top 100 Prospect Ranked – Midseason Update
Marco Kasper played a single NHL game after coming over from the SHL playoffs at the end of the 2022-23 season and likely would have been in the lineup for a few more games if he hadn’t been hurt. He was then sent to Grand Rapids for the length of the 2023-24 season to adjust to the new lifestyle and playing style before earning a full time NHL spot this season.
Simon Edvinsson came over from Sweden at the start of his 20-year-old season (the same age ASP will be next year), and played a total of 110 AHL games and 25 NHL games over the next two seasons before earning a full-time NHL role this season. Lucas Raymond was an exception in terms of Detroit’s typical development strategies, earning a roster spot out of training camp on the 2021-22 Red Wings who had an incredibly anemic offense and needed any talent they could find.
I expect ASP to spend the majority of the 2025-26 season in Grand Rapids, where he can play big minutes, unopposed by high-end players like Seider and Edvinsson. He can play on both special teams units, and adjust to the speed of the North American game in a lower stakes environment that way, a strategy that appears to have paid off tremendously well in Edvinsson’s case.
His North American Debut
I think it’s likely that ASP will play his first North American hockey before the 2024-25 season is over, with his SHL regular season ending on March 11. That means that his club Skelleftea AIK would need to go on a seriously deep run for ASP to not be available in Detroit for a regular season game or two. Although it’s possible the Red Wings want to see Sandin Pellikka hone his game in Grand Rapids for a while, I do think he’ll at least earn a quick bit of runway in the NHL at the end of this year, unless he blows the doors off and makes it impossible to remove him from the lineup down the stretch.
Of course, he isn’t going to be promised a spot in the lineup, especially if the Red Wings are in the thick of the playoff race by early April once again. After all, why mess with something that’s working? Well, just how much competition will he have on the right side of defense this Spring (and next Fall) when he arrives in Detroit?
ASP’s NHL Competition
Detroit’s most used right-handed defenders under Head Coach Todd McLellan are: Seider (537 mins) and Justin Holl (300 mins)(stats via. Natural Stat Trick). Seider has averaged roughly 25.5 minutes of ice time a night in that time, leaving just 34.5 minutes left to split between two other defenders playing on the right side. Albert Johansson has done a really good job on Detroit’s second pairing with Edvinsson, where he has played on his off side and increased his minutes from roughly 13 minutes a night under Derek Lalonde to 18.5 a night under McLellan.
That leaves roughly 16 minutes a night on the right side of the third pairing, which is normally played by Justin Holl with Jeff Petry sidelined as he recovers from a mid-season surgery. I think it’s reasonable to think we could see ASP filling in those minutes this year, given the low bar he’d need to surpass with Holl being outscored two-to-one (actually 22-to-11) since Detroit’s head coaching change.
Regardless of if ASP wins the RD3 spot in the lineup this Spring, he’ll have an easier path to it next year with Petry’s contract expiring this summer. Holl is signed for another year so there isn’t exactly a massive hole in the Red Wings lineup, but there’s a really good chance ASP is truly the team’s best option to fill that spot at the start of the 2025-26 season.
Despite that, Detroit has shown themselves to be the masters of restraint at times, prioritizing the team’s true contending window over marginal success now. They would likely rather develop ASP into the star he’s shown he can be than have a better player on their third pairing for the length of the 2025-26 season.
My Current Expectations for ASP
My expectations are for Sandin Pellikka to play a few NHL games this April, followed by at least one season spent mostly in the American League where he can play a bit more freely and assert himself in games as he adjusts to the lifestyle of North America and the different dimensions to the game here. It took a year or more of fans complaining that Edvinsson was clearly better than Detroit’s third-best left-side defender before the team actually gave him that spot full-time, and I think we’ll see something similar with ASP.
I expect ASP to be a full time NHLer at the start of the 2026-27 season at the latest, with a top-four role probably not much further down the road for him. He will likely take some power play time off of Seider’s plate right off the bat, opening Seider up for even more matchup minutes and penalty killing. ASP is capable of being a 60+ point guy in his prime NHL seasons, possibly quarterbacking Detroit’s top PP unit as both a pass and shot threat from the left flank where he has done a ton of damage in the SHL.
Detroit really is an ideal landing spot for ASP since he will not be expected to play massive, difficult minutes as long as Moritz Seider is around, freeing ASP up for big minutes against softer opposition where he can feast offensively and be in a better position to succeed defensively as well. I expect he will become an excellent second-pairing defender who scores a ton on the power play and can hold his own at even strength despite his smaller stature.