After years of carrying the bulk of the offensive load for the Detroit Red Wings, team captain Dylan Larkin is no longer the only elite offensive talent on the team, and may no longer be the team’s best player either. Lucas Raymond has shown many flashes of his potential since he made the leap to the NHL as a precocious 19 year old, but he hasn’t quite earned the reputation as a star across the NHL.
While he had a good season overall in 2023-24, Raymond took over as the team’s very best player down the stretch, coinciding with the absence of Larkin from the lineup. Raymond looked the part of a star for the final quarter of the season, establishing himself as an imposing offensive presence, and he has maintained that momentum into a hot start to the 2024-25 season.
Related: The NHL’s Top 100 Prospects – Preseason Rankings
To fully appreciate how good Raymond has been this Fall, let’s take a look at the team’s struggles, his new-found responsibilities, and how he has developed into the team’s best offensive player in all situations.
Red Wings’ Early Trials
The Detroit Red Wings have had a strange start to their season, with timely goals and goaltending earning them a few early wins despite the most predictable of issues being their ultimate downfall. Coming into this season, it was easy to see that the team’s defensive depth was sorely lacking, something that has been further strained by the team’s two best defenders, Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson, being stapled to each other’s side for most of each game.
As a result, the team loses the minutes that they don’t have that top pairing on the ice . . . badly.
While the team’s defensive game was expected to be a major issue this season, their struggles generating offense at even strength were less telegraphed. Through 9 games (roughly 10% of the season), Detroit is one of the very worst 5v5 teams in the NHL, grading out as the 31st ranked team in Corsi For % (percentage of shot attempts taken by Detroit) and 32nd in Shots For % (percentage of shots on next taken by Detroit). They’re also 29th in the league when it comes to Expected Goals For % (all stats via Natural Stat Trick)
Despite all of that, Detroit is currently in a 5-way tie for the third spot in the Atlantic Division, putting them in a relatively comfortable spot competitively. Detroit has done a good job of solidifying leads late in games, scoring a league-leading four empty net goals. They’ve also had a couple of remarkable performances from goaltenders Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot.
This Red Wings team is going to need consistent offense from their top players if they hope to compete for a playoff spot again this season, given their lackluster defensive group. Raymond has been a huge driver for the team on offense this season so let’s look at his breakout from last season and then at how he has parlayed that into his strong start this year.
Raymond’s Star Turn Last Season
Raymond began the 2023-24 season with a solid 51 points in 64 games, leading the Red Wings in assists with 34. He was fourth on the team in Corsi For %, sixth in Expected Goals For Percentage, and 23rd in PDO out of 24 eligible players. For those who don’t already know, PDO is a metric that adds a player’s on-ice shooting percentage to their on-ice save percentage, and is a general stand-in for luck with a number above 1.0 representing good luck.
Raymond was one of only four players on Detroit to that point last year with a PDO value under one, and was clearly due for at least some mild improvements, even just a few more lucky bounces.
Related: 2025 NHL Draft Rankings – Horn’s Early Top 50
Over the season’s final 18 games, as the Red Wings made a last ditch effort to make the playoffs, Raymond stepped up big time scoring 14 goals and 21 points. Over this final quarter of the season, when Raymond was on the ice, Detroit generated more shot attempts, shots, expected goals, and goals than at any other time. He had clearly taken a step forward, and while his late season heroics weren’t quite enough to land the team a playoff spot, the fanbase’s anxiety went from “will Raymond be an elite player for Detroit?” to “how much is Raymond going to cost Detroit on a long-term extension?”
Raymond’s Turn to Lead on the Ice
Early on this season, it’s clear the increased expectations of Raymond aren’t only coming from the fanbase, with the Detroit coaching staff giving him tougher minutes and leaning on him as an “all situations” type of player. He’s averaging just under 19 minutes of ice time per game so far, the highest mark of his young career, and that increase is largely due to him earning significant time on the penalty kill. So far, he is the fourth most used forward on the penalty kill in Detroit behind Larkin, Andrew Copp, and JT Compher.
Raymond killed penalties for just under 10 minutes over a full 82 games last season, and he’s already eclipsed the 9 minute mark in the same number of games. While it’s obviously a very small sample size, it’s encouraging that he hasn’t even been scored on yet in those minutes, rather, he’s the only one who has scored while he’s been out killing penalties after his shorthanded goal against Buffalo on Saturday.
One more look at Ray Ray’s first career short-handed goal. 🤌 pic.twitter.com/dbaqaYCwSP
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) October 26, 2024
If you’re into advanced stats like me then you might like to hear that Raymond leads the team in just about any metric you can dig up. Corsi For %, Shots For % (he’s the only regular in the lineup who hasn’t been outshot in the early going this year), Expected Goals For %, and Scoring Chances For %, to name just a few. Not to mention he’s doing this while starting a higher percentage of his shifts from his own zone than he ever has before in his career.
Elite Players Are Rare
All this to say, Lucas Raymond is more than just a skilled and streaky winger at this point. Rather, he’s an elite offensive talent who is already diversifying his impact on the game and becoming the Red Wings’ very best player right in front of our eyes. As he continues to mature and develop his skills, I expect Raymond to become a high-minute penalty killer who leads the team in scoring annually, an incredibly valuable piece.
Detroit has needed their top line to score a lot to offset the team’s questionable defending and unpredictable goaltending, and that line, led by Raymond, has been up to the task early on. Raymond scored 72 points in the 2023-24 season, and at this point I think that’s a reasonable floor for his true talent level, with him being able to push 80 or 90 points on a consistent basis throughout the lifetime of his brand-new eight-year contract.
While eight points in nine games isn’t exactly the most exciting stat line to open a season, I believe that the underlying numbers provide a great case that Raymond has been Detroit’s best player this Fall. If the rest of the team can take a little bit of the offensive load off, then I expect Raymond’s numbers will lineup a bit better with the elite players around the league.