Detroit — They’re ahead of where they were. But they aren’t where they need to be.
So, that’ll be the challenge for the Red Wings coming out of the All-Star break, trying to bridge that gap between the fringes of the playoff chase and legitimate contention.
And this will remain the dilemma for general manager Steve Yzerman, who is trying to get this franchise from here to there while keeping something else in mind: How best to avoid getting stuck in the middle?
That’s the clear and present danger in this, as it is in every so-called rebuild in professional sports. Or at least in every one that isn’t fueled by lottery luck and good health — both sorely missing in the Red Wings’ case.
If rookie head coach Derek Lalonde’s team fails to make the playoffs this spring, it’ll mark the longest postseason drought (seven seasons) in this Original Six franchise’s history. The Wings haven’t won a playoff series in a decade. And yet for all the losing Hockeytown has endured over the last six years, Detroit has been rewarded with just one top-five draft pick: Lucas Raymond in 2020. (The Wings dropped in the lottery every year from 2017 to 2020 and then failed to move up in the last two drafts.)
That’s where the fans’ frustration and the organization’s sense of urgency begins. Where it ends, though, is largely up to Yzerman, the Hall of Fame icon who returned from Tampa nearly four years ago to try to build another Stanley Cup champion.
Last summer, Yzerman’s moves in free agency sent a signal that the Wings were ready to turn a corner, taking advantage of a clean sheet and a new voice behind the bench. But, here they are now at the midseason break, and even Lalonde will tell you it’s difficult to gauge the progress.
The team has improved defensively, with better structure and depth. The goaltending is more reliable with Ville Husso in net. But, up front, where the Wings have been without a pair of projected 30-goal scorers in Jakub Vrana and Tyler Bertuzzi for most of the season, it has been a struggle on many nights. Detroit has scored more than four goals in regulation once since mid-November, and their advanced stats look much the same as they did a year ago offensively. (Detroit’s 5-on-5 expected goals share currently ranks 26th in the NHL.)
“We have to play a complete game to win,” Lalonde said. “If we get a bad goalie performance, if we’re sloppy on special teams, if we’re sloppy with our puck play, if we’re sloppy with our coverage, we’re not going to win. You look at some of the elites in our league … I experienced a lot of that in Tampa, where we didn’t have to be at our best to win. We have to be. I think our guys understand that.”
They do, in fact. But, they also understand they’ve got work to do over the next month to convince Yzerman not to make any drastic moves at the March 3 trade deadline. They need to make a “big push,” as veteran winger David Perron put it, “and give Steve something to think about.” Because right now, he has to be thinking — and talking — about the Wings being a seller at the deadline for a seventh consecutive season.
After 48 games, Detroit owns a 21-19-8 record, which is good for 50 points, but leaves the Wings seven points out of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. They’re sixth in the stacked Atlantic Division, but are tied with Tampa Bay for the fewest games played in the East. (They have four games in hand over fifth-place Florida, for example.) But, any optimism about where the Wings sit is tempered by reality: Detroit is closer to Montreal (44 points) and the second-worst record in the East than it is to Pittsburgh (57 points) and that second wild-card slot.
And while the Wings’ current pace projects to an 85-point season — that’d be an 11-point improvement over a year ago — it’ll take a lot more than that to reach the playoffs. Last season, it took 100 points in the East, and this spring, it probably will take at least 95.
So, if that seems out of reach, what’s a GM to do? Reach for the phone, right?
Sorting through the roster
Yzerman has a big-ticket item to take care of in Larkin, the captain whose long-term contract extension hasn’t yet materialized. But, all signs still point to that deal getting done at some point. Beyond that, there’s probably only a couple of other untouchables on the Wings’ current roster, in Moritz Seider and Raymond, both of whom have shaken off any concerns about a sophomore slump after last year’s impressive rookie debuts.
There are several pending unrestricted free agents that could be shipped out at the deadline as playoff rentals, however. Defenseman Olli Maatta would be a solid pickup for a team looking for left-side help on the blue line, though he’s also a candidate for an extension here in Detroit, even with the emergence of Jake Walman as a top-four partner for Seider. A group of forwards including Oskar Sundqvist, Pius Suter and Adam Erne also would be candidates to move for lesser returns, if Yzerman is so inclined.
Yet, so would the aforementioned Bertuzzi, who just returned to the lineup after missing time because of his third separate injury this season. He, too, was entering a contract year, hoping to land a lucrative extension. But, Bertuzzi, who turns 28 later this month, has just one goal in 17 games coming off last year’s 30-goal breakthrough. And, for a player with a history of contentious negotiations and injury concerns in Detroit, that complicates matters in terms of his trade value.
For Yzerman, though, that’s just one of many inflection points here. Is Bertuzzi part of the true core of the Wings’ next Cup contender or a bridge that’s about to be crossed? And what about selling high on Filip Hronek, who has been one of Detroit’s most effective players this season and won’t be a restricted free agent until 2024? The Wings reportedly were in the bidding for Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, a top-line center who was dealt to the Islanders on Monday, so is Yzerman, who also has plenty of cap space to work with, ready to make a similar splash at the deadline?
We’ll know a lot more about where Yzerman thinks the Red Wings really are in another month. And as Larkin noted before heading to Florida as the Wings’ lone All-Star for a second straight year, there’s still time to influence his decisions, perhaps.
“That’s my hope,” Larkin said, “is to see this thing through and to stay in it and make going to the rink meaningful every day down the stretch.”
But, if that sounds like a stretch, well, it probably is. Because, as Perron, one of Yzerman’s key additions back in July, put it Friday night after the loss to the Islanders, “There’s a reason why we’re not there yet in the standings. And that means usually you’re not there yet as a team.”